World water resources and regional vulnerability : impact of future changes

The study analyses the combined impact of population growth, economic development and climatic change on regional water resources vulnerability. Vulnerability is assessed by examining a region's demand-supply balance. The work also forecasts water supply and demand on the basis of various scenarios until 2025. Main conclusion is that about two-thirds of the world population will become more vulnerable to availability and use of water under current projections of population growth and climate change. Regions particularly affected by this increased vulnerability are North Africa and the Middle East, both already experiencing water scarcety and stress. The water situation deteriorates for Northern Europe, Southern Asia and some countries in Eastern Europe and Southern Africa. Management of water demand may include curtailing water-dependent economic development. Increasing water use efficiency in irrigation is essential, since in most countries irrigation is a major user of water. Demand management policies should be based on further studies for each country's specific situation (including differences within the country), since this report was forced to use countrywide and sometimes outdated aggregate data.