Linking water scarcity to population movements : from global models to local experiences

This paper reviews forecasts of global water scarcity and evaluates linkages between these forecasts and understanding of migration in order to better focus research and policy addressing the role of the environmental factors contributing to population movement and “environmental refugees”. The evaluation of the “refugee” forecasts presented here differs from existing studies as it incorporates more of the current research on migration and on human vulnerability and resilience in the face of environmental stresses. This approach balances the focus between the physical lack of resources and the social-ecological systems supporting human communities. It considers physical issues of water scarcity together with assessments of local water needs and the social capability to adjust water demands or draw on other resources to make water available locally. By drawing on case studies of migration and analysis of livelihood vulnerability to water stress, this review reframes global estimates within the structure of local circumstances, both challenges and opportunities, that people face when dealing with water stress, and to recognize the options for interventions in support of sustainable livelihood goals.